A Good Start for Comprehensively Building a Modern Socialist Country

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year was an important meeting convened during the critical period of getting off to a good start in comprehensively building a modern socialist country. At the meeting, General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered an important speech, summarizing the economic work of 2022, analyzing the current economic situation, and deploying the economic work of 2023, providing direction and guidance for a good start in comprehensively building a modern socialist country. We must deeply study and understand the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech, thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, strengthen confidence in development, grasp the correct working methods, advance the implementation of various key tasks, promote an overall improvement in economic performance, achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and get off to a good start in comprehensively building a modern socialist country.

去年底召开的中央经济工作会议，是在全面建设社会主义现代化国家开局起步的关键时期召开的一次重要会议。习近平总书记在会上发表重要讲话，总结2022年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2023年经济工作，为全面建设社会主义现代化国家开好局起好步定向领航。我们要深刻学习领会习近平总书记重要讲话精神，深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，坚定发展信心，把握正确工作方法，推进各项重点任务落实落地，推动经济运行整体好转，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为全面建设社会主义现代化国家开好局起好步。

In 2022, China’s economic operation was generally stable, and

2022年我国经济运行总体平稳，发展成就难能可贵

In 2022, facing a turbulent international environment and arduous tasks of reform, development, and maintaining stability at home, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core united and led the entire Party and people of all ethnic groups in the country to meet difficulties head-on and forge ahead. It coordinated both domestic and international imperatives, coordinated epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, and coordinated development with security. It stepped up macro-control, actively responded to the impact of unexpected factors, and China’s economy withstood severe tests. GDP exceeded 120 trillion yuan, economic operation was generally stable, the quality of development steadily improved, and development achievements were hard-won.

2022年，面对风高浪急的国际环境和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、砥砺前行，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，统筹发展和安全，加大宏观调控力度，积极应对超预期因素冲击，我国经济经受住了严峻考验，国内生产总值突破120万亿元，经济运行总体平稳，发展质量稳步提升，发展成就难能可贵。

Economic growth stabilized and improved. In the first quarter of 2022, China’s economic growth rate reached 4.8%, achieving a good start. Affected by factors such as increased global market volatility and the epidemic, the economic growth rate fell to 0.4% in the second quarter. Facing a complex and severe domestic and international situation, the Party Central Committee and the State Council promptly introduced a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, including expanding domestic demand, helping enterprises overcome difficulties, and ensuring people’s livelihoods, which promoted a rapid rebound of the economic growth rate to 3.9% in the third quarter. In 2022, China’s economy grew by 3.0%, achieving stabilization and improvement.

经济增长回稳向好。2022年一季度，我国经济增速达到4.8%，实现良好开局。受全球市场波动加剧和疫情等因素影响，二季度我国经济增速回落至0.4%。面对复杂严峻的国内外形势，党中央、国务院及时出台了扩大内需、助企纾困、保障民生等稳经济一揽子政策措施，促进三季度经济增速快速回升至3.9%。2022年，我国经济增长3.0%，实现了回稳向好。

The quality of development steadily improved. In 2022, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.6% year-on-year, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.4% year-on-year. The output of products such as new energy vehicles and mobile communication base station equipment increased by 97.5% and 16.3% year-on-year respectively, and positive progress was made in high-quality economic development. The investment structure underwent positive changes, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment maintaining relatively fast growth. In 2022, infrastructure investment increased by 9.4% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 9.1% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 22.2% and 12.1% year-on-year respectively.

发展质量稳步提升。2022年，规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.6%，高技术制造业增加值同比增长7.4%，新能源汽车、移动通信基站设备等产品产量同比分别增长97.5%、16.3%，经济高质量发展取得积极进展。投资结构发生积极变化，制造业、基础设施投资保持较快增长。2022年，基础设施投资同比增长9.4%，制造业投资同比增长9.1%，高技术制造业和高技术服务业投资分别同比增长22.2%、12.1%。

Exports maintained relatively fast growth. In 2022, affected by factors such as de-globalization, the impact of the epidemic, and rising prices of energy, grain, and other commodities, global trade in goods grew slowly, and economies such as the Eurozone and Japan experienced trade deficits one after another. Under such complex and severe circumstances, it was particularly difficult for China’s exports to still maintain relatively fast growth. In 2022, China’s total import and export of goods increased by 7.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports grew by 10.5%. This was achieved on the high base of 21.2% export growth in 2021 and despite the continued imposition of additional tariffs on some Chinese goods by the United States, fully demonstrating the strong resilience of China’s exports. The trade structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of exports of general trade, private enterprises, and mechanical and electrical products rising, and automobile exports becoming a new growth point.

出口保持较快增长。2022年，受逆全球化、疫情冲击、能源和粮食等商品价格上涨等因素影响，全球货物贸易增长趋缓，欧元区、日本等经济体纷纷出现贸易逆差。在这样复杂严峻形势下，我国出口仍保持较快增长，殊为不易。2022年，我国货物进出口总额同比增长7.7%。其中，出口增长10.5%，这是在2021年出口增长21.2%的高基数基础上、在美国对我部分商品继续加征关税的情况下实现的，充分说明我国出口具有强大韧性。贸易结构继续优化，一般贸易、民营企业、机电产品出口比重上升，汽车出口成为新的增长点。

Prices remained basically stable. Since 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in many countries around the world has risen sharply year-on-year. For example, the US CPI rose by more than 8% year-on-year for six consecutive months, at a historical high in nearly 40 years; the Eurozone CPI continued to climb, reaching 10.6%, 10%, and 9.2% in October, November, and December respectively, a record high since the establishment of the European Union; some developing countries even experienced hyperinflation. In stark contrast, China’s CPI rose by only 2.0% year-on-year in 2022, dropping to 1.8% in December, with prices remaining basically stable.

物价保持基本稳定。2022年以来，全球许多国家消费价格指数（CPI）同比大幅上涨。如，美国连续6个月CPI同比上涨8%以上，处于近40年来的历史高位；欧元区CPI持续攀升，10月、11月、12月分别为10.6%、10%、9.2%，创欧盟成立以来历史新高；一些发展中国家更是出现恶性通货膨胀。与其形成鲜明对比的是，2022年我国CPI同比仅上涨2.0%，12月更是降到1.8%，物价保持基本稳定。

People’s livelihoods and secure development were effectively guaranteed. In 2022, China’s employment situation was basically stable, with 12.06 million new urban jobs created throughout the year, exceeding the annual target of 11 million. Overcoming the impact of increased volatility in international commodity prices such as grain and energy and domestic natural disasters such as drought and floods, the security of grain and energy and the stability of industrial and supply chains were effectively ensured. The annual grain output continued to remain above 1.3 trillion jin [n], and coal, oil, and gas achieved stable production and increased production.

民生和安全发展得到有效保障。2022年，我国就业形势基本稳定，全年城镇新增就业1206万人，超额完成1100万人的全年预期目标任务。克服国际粮食、能源等大宗商品价格波动加剧和国内干旱、洪涝等自然灾害影响，有力保障了粮食能源安全和产业链供应链稳定，全年粮食产量继续保持在1.3万亿斤以上，煤炭、油气实现稳产增产。

The fundamentals of China’s economy, which are positive in the long run, have not changed.

我国经济长期向好的基本面没有变

In the short term, 2023 has favorable conditions for an overall improvement in China’s economy. First, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, scenario-based consumption and contact-based consumption will recover and grow relatively quickly, and consumption will continue to recover. Second, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to maintain relatively fast growth. At the same time, with the introduction and implementation of a series of policies and measures, market expectations and confidence in real estate and other sectors will gradually pick up. Third, the effects of a series of policies implemented since 2022 will continue to manifest, and in 2023, policies to stabilize growth, employment, and prices will continue to be introduced, which will inevitably further promote economic recovery and development. The low base of economic growth in 2022 is also conducive to a rebound in economic growth in 2023.

从短期看，2023年我国经济整体好转具备有利条件。一是随着疫情防控措施不断优化，场景式消费、接触性消费等将较快恢复增长，消费将持续恢复。二是基础设施投资和制造业投资将继续保持较快增长，同时随着一系列政策措施的出台实施，房地产等的市场预期和信心也会逐步回升。三是2022年以来实施的一系列政策效应持续显现，2023年还将继续出台稳增长稳就业稳物价的政策，必将进一步促进经济恢复发展。2022年经济增速基数较低，也有利于2023年经济增速回升。

In the long term, the fundamentals of China’s economy, which are positive in the long run, have not changed. China’s working-age population is close to 900 million, and the demographic dividend of talent is rapidly forming and being released; the savings rate is still relatively high, providing strong support for investment growth; it has the world’s largest middle-income group, and the potential of the super-large market is continuously being unleashed; the industrial and supply chain system is complete and resilient, the digital, intelligent, and green transformation of industries is steadily advancing, and strategic emerging industries are developing and growing rapidly; the price level, fiscal deficit rate, and debt ratio are not high, and there is considerable room for implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Overall, China’s potential economic growth rate is currently still in the range of 5% to 6%, and the economic recovery and improvement have solid support.

从长期看，我国经济长期向好的基本面没有变。我国劳动年龄人口接近9亿人，人才红利正在快速形成和释放；储蓄率仍然较高，投资增长具有有力支撑；拥有全球最大规模的中等收入群体，超大规模市场潜力不断释放；产业链供应链体系完整、韧性强，产业数字化、智能化、绿色化转型稳步推进，战略性新兴产业快速发展壮大；物价水平、财政赤字率和债务率不高，实施积极财政政策和稳健货币政策有较大空间。综合来看，目前我国经济潜在增长率仍处在5%—6%的区间，经济回升向好具有坚实支撑。

At present, although China’s economic development faces some difficulties and challenges, the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid, and the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations remain significant. Maintaining export growth and ensuring the stability of industrial and supply chains, as well as grain and energy security, face considerable pressure. However, China’s economy is resilient, has great potential, and is full of vitality, and its fundamentals, which are positive in the long run, have not changed. As long as we take the established goals as strategic guidance, uphold fundamental principles and break new ground, and handle our own affairs well, we can firmly grasp the initiative in development and security. Overall, we are fully capable and able to promote an overall improvement in economic operation and achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.

当前，虽然我国经济发展面临一些困难挑战，经济恢复的基础尚不稳固，需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力仍然较大，保持出口增长和保障产业链供应链稳定、粮食和能源安全等面临较大压力，但是我国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足，长期向好的基本面没有变。只要以既定目标为战略指引，守正创新办好自己的事情，就能牢牢把握发展和安全主动权。综合来看，我们完全有条件、有能力推动经济运行整体好转，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。

Do a good job by grasping the key points to promote new achievements in high-quality development.

纲举目张做好工作，推动高质量发展取得新成效

At the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year, General Secretary Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out: “The economic work next year is multifarious. We must proceed from the overall strategic situation, grasp the principal contradiction, start with improving social psychological expectations and boosting development confidence, seize major key links, and do a good job by grasping the key points.” [n] The Central Economic Work Conference clarified the overall requirements, policy orientations, and key tasks for economic work in 2023. To implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, we must adhere to the systems concept, uphold fundamental principles and break new ground, better coordinate epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, better coordinate effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, better coordinate supply-side structural reform with expanding domestic demand, better coordinate economic policies with other policies, better coordinate domestic circulation with international circulation, and better coordinate the present with the long term. Proceeding from the overall strategic situation, starting with improving social psychological expectations and boosting development confidence, we must do a good job by grasping the key points, promote new achievements in high-quality development with a new atmosphere and new actions, and get off to a good start for comprehensively building a modern socialist country.

在去年底召开的中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记深刻指出：“明年经济工作千头万绪，要从战略全局出发，抓主要矛盾，从改善社会心理预期、提振发展信心入手，抓住重大关键环节，纲举目张做好工作。”中央经济工作会议明确了2023年经济工作的总体要求、政策取向、重点任务。把中央经济工作会议精神落到实处，要坚持系统观念、守正创新，更好统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，更好统筹经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长，更好统筹供给侧结构性改革和扩大内需，更好统筹经济政策和其他政策，更好统筹国内循环和国际循环，更好统筹当前和长远，从战略全局出发，从改善社会心理预期、提振发展信心入手，纲举目张做好工作，以新气象新作为推动高质量发展取得新成效，为全面建设社会主义现代化国家开好局起好步。

Strive to expand domestic demand. Insufficient aggregate demand, especially the decline in consumer demand, is the prominent contradiction facing current economic operations. Against the backdrop of weakening external demand, it is necessary to vigorously implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption, and proceed from three aspects: restoring consumption scenarios, guiding consumption expectations, and enhancing consumption capacity. Steadily restore contact-based consumption such as catering services and cultural tourism; support consumption in housing improvement, new energy vehicles, elderly care services, education, and medical care; and promote the return of total retail sales of consumer goods to a normal growth level. Give full play to the key role of investment in stabilizing economic growth, effectively drive全社会 investment through government investment and policy incentives, and maintain stable growth in fixed asset investment.

着力扩大国内需求。总需求不足尤其是消费需求下降是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾。在外需减弱的背景下，必须大力实施扩大内需战略，把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，从恢复消费场景、引导消费预期、增强消费能力三个方面着手，稳步恢复餐饮服务、文化旅游等接触性消费，支持住房改善、新能源汽车、养老服务、教育医疗等消费，促进社会消费品零售总额回归正常增长水平。发挥投资对稳经济增长的关键作用，通过政府投资和政策激励有效带动全社会投资，保持固定资产投资稳定增长。

Accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system. From an international perspective, the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is deepening, anti-globalization sentiment is rising, and factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and intensified major-power competition are accelerating the restructuring of the global landscape for labor-intensive industries, advanced manufacturing, high-tech industries, and energy and resources. From a domestic perspective, China’s production factors and demand conditions are undergoing marginal and trend-based changes, and industrial development is entering a critical juncture of climbing over hurdles and transitioning from old to new growth drivers. It is necessary to attach great importance to stabilizing industrial and supply chains and ensuring energy and food security; support enterprise upgrading and transformation; enhance the position and competitiveness of traditional industries in the global industrial division of labor; stabilize the basic foundation of advanced manufacturing; focus on self-reliance and self-strengthening by effectively strengthening research on key core technologies; accelerate the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries such as new energy and artificial intelligence; boldly open up new fields and win new tracks; strengthen domestic exploration, development, and production increases of important energy and mineral resources; enhance the national strategic material reserve guarantee capacity; implement a new round of the action to increase grain production capacity by 50 million tons [3]3 A target to increase China’s annual grain production capacity by 50 million metric tons (100 billion jin) above a baseline, announced in the 2023 policy framework to strengthen food self-sufficiency.; and firmly hold the Chinese people’s rice bowl in their own hands.

加快建设现代化产业体系。从国际看，新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展，逆全球化思潮抬头，叠加新冠疫情、地缘政治冲突、大国博弈加剧等多种因素影响，全球劳动密集型产业、先进制造业、高技术产业以及能源资源版图正在加速重构。从国内看，我国生产要素和需求条件发生边际性、趋势性变化，产业发展正进入爬坡过坎、新旧动能转换的关口期。必须高度重视稳定产业链供应链和保障能源粮食安全，支持企业更新改造，提升传统产业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力，稳住先进制造业发展基本盘；聚焦自立自强，切实加强关键核心技术攻关；加快培育壮大新能源、人工智能等新兴产业，勇于开辟新领域、制胜新赛道；加强重要能源、矿产资源国内勘探开发和增储上产，提升国家战略物资储备保障能力；实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动，把中国人的饭碗牢牢端在自己手中。

Earnestly implement the “Two Unswervinglys” [4]4 The policy of “unswervingly consolidating and developing the public sector of the economy, and unswervingly encouraging, supporting, and guiding the development of the non-public sector of the economy,” first formally articulated at the 16th National Congress of the CPC in 2002 and repeatedly reaffirmed since.. Affected by the pandemic and other factors, some private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises face many difficulties in production and operation, with weak development expectations and insufficient confidence. It is necessary to always adhere to the “Two Unswervinglys”: on the one hand, deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises to enhance the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises; on the other hand, continuously optimize the development environment for the private economy, protect the property rights of private enterprises and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with the law, implement the requirement of equal treatment for state-owned and private enterprises from the institutional and legal levels, and encourage and support the development and growth of the private economy from the policy and public opinion levels.

切实落实“两个毫不动摇”。受疫情等因素影响，一些民营经济、中小微企业生产经营困难较多，发展预期偏弱，信心不足。要始终坚持“两个毫不动摇”，既深化国资国企改革，提高国有企业核心竞争力；又不断优化民营经济发展环境，依法保护民营企业产权和企业家权益，从制度和法律上把对国企民企平等对待的要求落下来，从政策和舆论上鼓励支持民营经济和民营企业发展壮大。

Attract and utilize foreign investment with greater intensity. At present, China’s comprehensive advantages in attracting and utilizing foreign investment remain very prominent. At the same time, affected by factors such as rising labor costs, utilizing foreign investment also faces considerable pressure. It is necessary to take forceful measures, such as expanding market access, implementing national treatment for foreign-funded enterprises, and promoting institutional opening up, to increase the utilization of foreign investment in areas such as modern services and high-tech industries, and to improve the quality and level of trade and investment cooperation.

更大力度吸引和利用外资。目前，我国在吸引和利用外资方面的综合优势仍然十分突出。同时，受劳动力成本上升等因素影响，利用外资也面临较大压力。必须采取有力措施，通过扩大市场准入、落实好外资企业国民待遇、推进制度型开放等措施，加大现代服务业、高技术产业等领域利用外资力度，提升贸易投资合作质量和水平。

Effectively prevent and defuse major economic and financial risks. At present, China’s development has entered a period in which strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist, and uncertainties and unpredictable factors are increasing. Various “black swan” and “gray rhino” events may occur at any time. It is necessary to strengthen a systems perspective and a bottom-line mindset, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic risks. It is necessary to prevent and defuse risks in the real estate market: on the supply side, solidly carry out various tasks to ensure the delivery of housing, ensure people’s livelihoods, and ensure stability, meeting the reasonable financing needs of the industry; on the demand side, strive to improve expectations, expand effective demand, and promote a smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model. It is necessary to prevent and defuse risks in areas such as small and medium-sized financial institutions and local government debt, intensify efforts to dispose of existing debt, and resolutely curb increments and resolve stock.

有效防范化解重大经济金融风险。当前，我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期，各种“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件随时可能发生，必须增强系统观念和底线思维，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线。要防范化解房地产市场风险，既从供给端扎实做好保交楼、保民生、保稳定各项工作，满足行业合理融资需求；又从需求端着力改善预期，扩大有效需求，推动房地产业向新发展模式平稳过渡。要防范化解中小金融机构、地方政府债务等领域风险，加大存量债务处置力度，坚决遏制增量、化解存量。

(The author is the President of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research)

（作者为中国宏观经济研究院院长）

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心