The Decline of Political Parties in Western Europe and the Rise of Populism

In recent years, driven by a series of economic, political, and social crises, populist parties have rapidly risen in Western European countries, becoming a notable political phenomenon. An inescapable factor is that the decline of mainstream parties constitutes the basic precondition for the rise of populist parties in Western Europe. Since the 1970s, Western European countries have successively entered post-industrial society, with major transformations in social class structure and values. Under these circumstances, political parties, which are crucial to representative democracy, have experienced a long-term decline in Western European countries. Overall, political parties in Western European countries have undergone major changes in three aspects: party organization, ideological convergence, and electoral volatility. These constitute the three main dimensions of the decline of Western European parties and the basic political context driving the rise of populism.

近年来，在一系列经济、政治和社会危机的推动下，民粹主义政党在西欧国家迅速崛起，成为令人瞩目的政治事件。一个不可忽视的因素是，主流政党的衰败构成了西欧民粹主义政党兴起的基本前提。自20世纪70年代以来，西欧各国陆续进入后工业社会，社会阶级结构和价值观出现了重大转型，在这种情况下，对代议民主至关重要的政党在西欧国家出现了长期性的衰败。总体而言，西欧国家政党在政党组织、理念趋同与选举波动性三个方面出现重大变化，构成了西欧政党衰败的三个主要面向与推动民粹主义崛起的基本政治情境。

The atrophy of traditional party organizational functions

传统政党组织功能萎缩

Traditionally, political parties, as important intermediary organizations connecting the populace and the government, have played a key role in aggregating voter interests, providing policy options, and performing governing functions. However, since the mid-to-late 20th century, due to the transformation of social structure and the popularization of new media, party organizations in Western countries have begun to continuously decline.

传统上，政党作为连接民众和政府的重要中介组织在凝聚选民利益、提供政策选项和履行执政功能方面起着关键性的作用。然而，20世纪中后期以来，由于社会结构的转型与新媒体的普及，西方国家的政党组织开始持续走向衰败。

First, the decline of parties begins with the decline of party organizations themselves. In the late 20th century, the membership numbers of mainstream Western European parties continuously declined. From 1980 to 2008, the membership of major political parties in Western European countries decreased by nearly half. In the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, which traditionally had millions of members, have seen their membership numbers continuously decline in recent decades. A 2014 survey showed that among the major political parties in the UK, the Labour Party ranked first in membership with 190,000 people, followed by the Conservative Party with 135,000. Only 1% of all British people were party members, a figure even lower than on the European continent.

第一，政党衰败首先从政党组织本身的衰败开始。20世纪晚期，西欧主流政党的党员数量持续下滑。1980—2008年，西欧国家主要政党的党员人数减少了接近一半。在英国，传统上拥有数百万党员的保守党和工党党员人数近几十年持续下滑。2014年的调查显示，在英国政坛的主要政党中，工党党员人数名列第一，为19万人；其后是保守党，为13.5万人。全体英国人中，只有1%的人是政党成员，这一数据甚至低于欧洲大陆。

Second, with the loss of party personnel, party identification has weakened. In major Western European countries, party members' identification with and enthusiasm for participation in their parties have continuously weakened, and the number of party activists has declined steadily. Those who actively participate in party political activities tend to be older and wealthier, while young people generally lack interest in participating in party activities. Even among registered party members, party identification has greatly declined. Research shows that in Denmark, six-sevenths of party members are normally inactive, with most merely having registered their party membership. In Putnam's words, most voters would rather "bowl alone" than participate in public life, including party activities.

第二，随着政党人员流失，政党认同度削弱。在主要西欧国家，政党成员的政党认同和参与积极性持续弱化，政党积极分子人数每况愈下。积极参与政党政治活动的人往往年纪比较大、生活较富裕，年轻人对于参加政党活动普遍缺乏兴趣。即便是注册党员，政党认同感也大大下降。研究显示，在丹麦，有6/7的党员平常是不活跃的，大多数只是注册了党员身份而已。用帕特南的话说，大部分选民宁可“独自打保龄球”，也不愿意参与包括政党活动在内的公共生活。

Third, the cartelization of mainstream parties has led to the weakening of organizational functions. Richard Katz and Peter Mair argue that modern Western political parties increasingly resemble cartel groups in economic markets. The consequence is that parties become more closely connected with the state and use state resources to restrict political competition, thereby weakening their connection with voters. In Western European countries, the trend of party cartelization is evident: party organizations are becoming increasingly professionalized and increasingly dependent on state resources. This inevitably weakens the grassroots nature of mainstream parties and their connection with social forces, thereby losing the basic functions of political mobilization and representation that parties themselves possess, leading to a crisis of representation.

第三，主流政党的卡特尔化导致组织功能弱化。理查德·卡茨和皮特·迈尔认为，现代西方国家的政党越来越像经济市场的卡特尔集团。这样的后果是，政党与国家的关系更加密切，并利用国家资源来限制政治竞争，从而削弱了与选民之间的连接。在西欧国家，政党卡特尔化趋势明显，政党组织越来越专业化，越来越依赖于国家资源。这不可避免地削弱了主流政党的草根性以及与社会力量的连接，从而丧失了政党本身政治动员和代表的基本功能，以致出现代表性危机。

Ideological convergence of mainstream parties

主流政党的意识形态趋同

At the end of the 20th century, consensus politics marked by the "middle way" and the "Third Way" began to prevail in European and American countries. Major Western European countries underwent a political shift toward the center. This model of consensus politics, which claimed to transcend left and right, in fact blurred ideological boundaries, thereby causing the ideological convergence of mainstream parties.

20世纪末期，欧美国家开始盛行以“中间道路”“第三条道路”为标志的共识政治。西欧主要国家发生了向中间路线靠拢的政治转变。这种宣称超越左右的共识政治模式事实上模糊了意识形态界限，从而造成主流政党意识形态的趋同。

On the one hand, some new, major political issues have long been neglected by mainstream parties. In Western European countries, mainstream parties from both the left and right generally embraced European integration, globalization, and immigration. Entering the 21st century, globalization and free trade brought widespread economic prosperity but also subjected blue-collar unskilled workers in Western European countries to competition and pressure from developing countries, thereby causing the decline and bankruptcy of manufacturing. However, mainstream parties and political figures from both the left and right all held positions embracing globalization and free trade, which provided space for the rise of anti-elite and anti-globalization populist forces. At the same time, with the intensification of the European debt crisis and the refugee crisis, the issues of European integration and refugees, long neglected by mainstream parties, became increasingly prominent, becoming new focal points of political attack and defense. Under these circumstances, populist parties, with such issues as their main axis, catered to the public, seized the initiative on these issues, and thus gained a foothold in the electoral market.

一方面，一些新的、重大的政治议题长期受到主流政党的忽视。在西欧各国，来自左右两翼的主流政党普遍拥抱欧洲一体化、全球化和移民。进入21世纪，全球化和自由贸易带来普遍的经济繁荣，也使得西欧国家的蓝领非技术工人面临来自发展中国家的竞争和挤压，因此造成制造业的衰败和破产。然而，来自左右两翼的主流政党和政治人物都持拥抱全球化和自由贸易的立场，这为反精英和反全球化的民粹力量的崛起提供了空间。同时，随着欧债危机和难民危机的加剧，长期受到主流政党忽视的欧洲一体化和难民问题日益凸显，成为政治攻防的新焦点。这种情况下，以此类议题为主轴的民粹主义政党通过迎合民众，夺取议题主导权，从而在选举市场中获得一席之地。

On the other hand, the political convergence achieved by mainstream parties has strengthened populists' denunciation of political elites. By criticizing the sameness and collusion of interests among mainstream political elites, populists portray themselves as the only force independent of the political mainstream that represents public opinion and saves democracy. In France, Jean-Marie Le Pen packaged the National Front as the only party defending democracy and the voice of the people. It is precisely the increasing similarity of mainstream political forces that has provided fertile soil for the rise of populism.

另一方面，主流政党所达成的政治趋同强化了民粹主义者对于政治精英的贬斥。通过批判主流政治精英的大同小异和利益共谋，民粹主义者将自己塑造成独立于政治主流之外的唯一代表民意、拯救民主的力量。在法国，让-玛丽·勒庞将国民阵线包装成唯一捍卫民主和人民之声的政党。而正是主流政治力量越来越相似，为民粹主义的兴起提供了肥沃的土壤。

Therefore, in countries with a tradition of consensus politics and the practice of grand coalition governments, populism often gains more political space. When most mainstream parties come together to form cross-ideological grand coalition governments, they must compromise on their political positions and ideologies and move toward the center. Frank Decker argues that corporatist structures play a promoting rather than hindering role for populist parties. By establishing a corporatist government structure that includes various mainstream political forces, democratic states exclude new political participants, but also leave those who feel unrepresented with no hope for change except by placing it in anti-establishment populist parties. Although the consociational democracy advocated by Arend Lijphart can achieve consensus in governance and policy-making, it easily breeds political dissatisfaction and protest voting due to the lack of necessary policy options and power alternation, thereby providing space for anti-system populist parties. Research also shows that in Western European countries with consensus-based systems, populist parties have higher support rates and vote shares than in countries with majoritarian systems.

因此，在那些具有共识政治传统和实行大联合政府的国家，民粹主义往往更能获得政治空间。当大多数主流政党结合在一起组成跨意识形态的大联合政府时，他们必须对其政治立场和意识形态做出妥协而往中间靠拢。弗兰克·德克认为，统合主义的结构对民粹主义政党起着推动而非阻碍作用。通过建立一个包含政府各种主流政治势力的统合性政府结构，民主国家排斥了新的政治参与者，但也使得那些自认为不被代表的民众只能将改变希望寄托于反建制派的民粹政党。阿伦·利普哈特所提倡的协和式民主虽然在执政和政策制定时可以达成共识，却因为缺乏必要的政策选项和权力更替而易滋生政治不满和抗议性投票，从而为反体制的民粹政党提供空间。研究还表明，在西欧国家中实行共识主义体制的国家，民粹主义政党的支持度和得票率要比实行多数主义体制的国家更高。

Increase in electoral volatility

政党选举波动性的增加

After World War II, the political systems of Western European countries were in a state of high stability for a long time, mainly because the party systems that dominated Western European politics were in a "frozen" state. Social democratic parties and socialist parties, which believe in liberalism or social democracy, together with conservative parties, which believe in conservatism or Christian democracy, constituted the left and right wings of European politics, dominating post-war Western European politics. In most Western European countries, the two major parties (or alliances) captured the majority of votes in successive general elections, especially in countries with two-party systems. For example, in the United Kingdom before the 1990s, the combined vote share of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, the two major parties, was consistently between 75% and 90%, meaning that parties outside the two-party system found it very difficult to gain significant political influence. The "frozen" state of the party system was the foundation of political stability in Western European countries for decades after World War II.

二战之后，西欧国家的政治制度长期处于高度稳定状态，这主要是因为主导西欧政治的政党制度处于“冻结”状态。信奉自由主义或社会民主主义的社会民主党、社会党与信奉保守主义或基督教民主主义的保守政党分别构成欧洲政治的左右两翼，主导着战后西欧政治。在大多数西欧国家，两大政党（联盟）在历次大选中包揽了大多数选票，这在实行两党制的国家尤其如此。例如，在20世纪90年代以前的英国，保守党和工党这两大党所获选票之和长期在75%—90%之间，这意味着游离于两大党体系之外的政党很难获得较大政治影响力。政党制度“冻结”状态是西欧国家二战之后数十年保持政治稳定的基础。

With the loosening of the party system, electoral volatility in Western European countries has increased significantly, and the traditionally frozen party system has begun to thaw. According to statistics, in 2015, the average vote share of traditional mainstream parties in Europe was only 72%, a drop of 14 percentage points from ten years earlier. At the same time, the proportion of voters voting for new populist challengers nearly doubled from ten years earlier, reaching 23%. In the United Kingdom, as the vote shares of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party continuously declined, the number of voters outside the two-party system continuously increased, and the Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party quickly gained ground, winning support from voters dissatisfied with the two-party system. In continental European countries such as France, mainstream parties similarly faced long-term decline, with vote shares continuously falling, followed by a rapid rise in support for the populist National Front. In the 2017 presidential election, the two major parties that had traditionally dominated French politics (the Socialist Party and the Republicans) were both eliminated in the first round of voting, while the far-right National Front entered the second round as the second-place vote-getter, shocking French politics.

随着政党体制的松动，西欧国家的选举波动性显著增加，传统上处于冻结状态的政党制度开始解冻。据统计，2015年，欧洲的传统主流政党的平均得票率只有72%，比10年前直降了14个百分点。同时，投票给新的民粹主义挑战者的选民几乎比10年前翻了一番，达到23%。在英国，随着保守党和工党得票率持续下降，游离于两党之外的选民持续增加，自由民主党和英国独立党迅速得利，得到了反感两大党体制的选民的支持。在法国等欧陆国家，主流政党同样面临长期衰败，得票率持续下滑，随之而来是民粹政党国民阵线支持率的快速攀升。2017年总统选举中，传统上主导法国政治的两大党（社会党和共和党）在第一轮投票中双双出局，极右翼的国民阵线则以得票第二名进入第二轮投票，震惊了法国政坛。

In the process of decline among Western European political parties, the decline of centre-left parties is particularly pronounced. Over the past two to three decades, centre-left parties have weakened their character as representatives of the interests of the lower and middle classes, failing to engage in dialogue with the traditional lower and middle classes whose interests have been harmed by globalisation. As Fukuyama has stated, left-wing parties have reduced their focus on economic equality, turning instead to promoting the interests of various marginalised groups (such as ethnic minorities, immigrants, refugees, women, and LGBT groups). This turn towards identity politics has brought crisis to Western European centre-left parties. In Western European countries, centre-left parties have almost universally experienced decline and loss of votes. Once quite powerful in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Spain, centre-left parties have seen their vote shares in recent elections hit historic lows.

西欧政党衰败过程中，中左翼政党的衰败尤为明显。在过去二三十年，中左翼政党弱化了作为中下阶层利益代表的色彩，而未能与在全球化中利益受损的传统中下阶层进行对话。正如福山所说，左派政党减弱了对经济平等的关注，转而关注如何促进各个边缘群体（如少数民族、移民、难民、妇女和LGBT群体）的利益。这种转向身份认同的做法给西欧的中左翼政党带来危机。在西欧国家，中左翼政党几乎都遭遇衰败和选票流失。曾经在奥地利、丹麦、芬兰、挪威和西班牙颇为强大的中左翼政党在近几次选举中的得票率触及史上最低。

The decline of mainstream Western European parties, especially centre-left parties, has provided enormous political space for emerging populist parties. As large numbers of voters drift away from mainstream parties, new small parties, including populist ones, gain new political opportunities. In Western European countries, many voters have changed their party allegiances and voted for populist parties. Quite paradoxically, a significant portion of the traditional supporters of centre-left parties has shifted to emerging right-wing populist parties. Voters who originally supported left-wing parties—blue-collar workers, unskilled workers, small factory owners—have in recent years increasingly embraced right-wing populist parties.

西欧主流政党的衰败，特别是中左翼政党的衰败给新兴的民粹主义政党提供了巨大的政治空间。随着大量选民游离于主流政党之外，包括民粹主义政党在内的新兴小党获得新的政治机会。西欧国家中大量选民改变了政党支持，投票给了民粹主义政党。颇为吊诡的是，传统上中左翼政党的支持者有很大一部分流向了新兴的右翼民粹主义政党，原本支持左翼政党的选民——蓝领工人、非技术工人、小工厂主——近年来纷纷拥抱右翼民粹主义政党。

The rise of populist parties has, to some extent, reshaped the political landscape of Western European countries. For Western European countries, whether the reshaping effect of populist parties is corrective or threatening is a political phenomenon worthy of continued in-depth observation.

民粹主义政党的崛起一定程度上重塑了西欧国家的政治版图。对西欧国家来说，民粹主义政党的重塑性作用究竟是矫正还是威胁，是一个值得继续深入观察的政治现象。

Online editor: Paul

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