Taking the Path of Modernization for a Large Country with a Huge Population

General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out emphatically: “Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a huge population. The sheer size of our country’s population of over 1.4 billion people entering modern society, a scale exceeding the total population of all developed countries, entails unprecedented difficulty and complexity, and the development path and methods of advancement will inevitably have their own characteristics.” [1]1 The term “Chinese-path modernization” (中国式现代化) is a core concept of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, referring to a uniquely Chinese model of modernization that differs from Western models. The huge population size is a distinctive feature of Chinese-path modernization and also the basic starting point for our decision-making. Based on the typical characteristics of a huge population, promoting common prosperity, building a strong educational country, and promoting economic development primarily through domestic demand are urgent requirements and important tasks for realizing Chinese-path modernization.

习近平总书记强调指出：“中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化。我国十四亿多人口整体迈进现代化社会，规模超过现有发达国家人口的总和，艰巨性和复杂性前所未有，发展途径和推进方式也必然具有自己的特点。”人口规模巨大是中国式现代化的鲜明特色，也是我们做决策的基本出发点。根据人口规模巨大的典型特征，促进共同富裕、建设教育强国、以内需为主促进经济发展，是实现中国式现代化的迫切要求和重要任务。

Promoting Common Prosperity

推进共同富裕

General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “For China’s 1.4 billion people to enter modern society as a whole, on a scale exceeding the total population of all existing developed countries, will completely rewrite the world map of modernization and is a major event of far-reaching significance in human history.” [2]2 This is a direct quotation from Xi Jinping, emphasizing the global significance of China’s modernization. China is a large developing country with a huge population. According to World Bank data, the global population reached 7.837 billion in 2021, of which the population of high-income countries was 1.291 billion, accounting for 15.89 percent of the global total; China’s population reached 1.413 billion, accounting for 18.03 percent of the global total. From an international perspective, if China is to fully realize modernization and enter the ranks of high-income countries, the number of people entering high-income status will increase by 1.28 times. This is undoubtedly a great feat in human history and will greatly advance the historical process of world modernization. From a domestic perspective, Chinese-path modernization is socialist modernization. Common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism, and taking the path of common prosperity is the inevitable choice for Chinese-path modernization. China is a large developing country with a large population and vast territory. Although it has solved the problem of food and clothing and achieved a moderately prosperous society in all respects, [3]3 “Moderately prosperous society in all respects” (全面小康) refers to the goal of achieving a decent standard of living for all Chinese citizens, officially declared as realized in 2021. there still exists the contradiction between the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development, with regional development imbalance and urban-rural development imbalance being prominent manifestations. To this end, measures need to be taken to gradually resolve the problem of unbalanced development and promote all the people toward common prosperity. Specifically, first, implement the regional coordinated development strategy, follow the law of gradient transfer in the regional economy, and by building the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as economic growth poles, actively utilize the spillover effects and radiation effects of the economy and technology of developed regions to promote the development of the western region, the revitalization of the northeast, and the rise of the central region; [4]4 These are major regional development strategies: the western development strategy (西部大开发), the revitalization of the old industrial bases in the northeast (东北振兴), and the rise of the central region (中部崛起). through improving and perfecting the transfer payment system and the tertiary distribution system, [5]5 “Tertiary distribution” (三次分配) refers to voluntary charitable donations and other non-governmental transfers, as distinct from primary (market) and secondary (government) distribution. gradually achieve equalization of basic public services, thereby narrowing the gap in regional economies and residents’ incomes. Second, implement the rural revitalization strategy, follow the law of coordinated urban-rural development, and by using industry to support agriculture and cities to drive the countryside, promote the formation of a new type of urban-rural relationship of common prosperity; by improving the quality, efficiency, and competitiveness of agriculture, enhancing the scientific and technological and cultural quality of farmers, and comprehensively improving rural infrastructure, actively advance agricultural and rural modernization.

习近平总书记指出：“我国14亿人口要整体迈入现代化社会，其规模超过现有发达国家的总和，将彻底改写现代化的世界版图，在人类历史上是一件有深远影响的大事。”中国是人口规模巨大的发展中大国。根据世界银行的数据，2021年全球人口数量达到78.37亿人，其中高收入国家人口数量达到12.91亿人，占全球人口总数的15.89%；中国人口数量达到14.13亿人，占全球人口总数的18.03%。从国际看，中国要全面实现现代化，进入高收入国家的人口数量将增加1.28倍，无疑是人类历史上的伟大壮举，也将极大推进世界现代化的历史进程。从国内看，中国式现代化是社会主义现代化，共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求，走共同富裕道路是中国式现代化的必然选择。中国是一个人口众多、幅员辽阔的发展中大国，虽然已解决温饱问题和实现全面小康，但仍然存在人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾，区域发展不平衡和城乡发展不平衡是突出表现。为此，需要采取措施逐步解决发展不均衡问题，促进全体人民走向共同富裕。具体而言，一是实施区域协调发展战略，遵循区域经济梯度推移的规律，通过打造京津冀、长三角和粤港澳经济增长极，积极利用发达地区经济和技术的外溢效应和辐射作用，促进西部开发、东北振兴和中部崛起；通过健全和完善转移支付制度和三次分配制度，逐步实现基本公共服务均等化，进而缩小区域经济和居民收入的差距。二是实施乡村振兴战略，遵循城乡协调发展规律，通过以工补农和以城带乡，推进形成共同繁荣的新型城乡关系；通过提高农业质量效益和竞争力，增强农民科技文化素质，统筹完善乡村基础设施，积极推进农业和农村现代化。

Accelerating the Building of a Strong Educational Country

加快建设教育强国

General Secretary Xi Jinping has proposed, “We must give priority to educational development, achieve self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and drive development with talent, accelerating the building of a strong educational country, a strong scientific and technological country, and a strong talent country.” [6]6 This is a direct quotation from Xi Jinping, outlining the strategic priorities for national development. Among various factors of production, human resources are the most important factor, and human capital is the most valuable capital. China is a large country of human resources with a super-large population. This population size is not a hindrance to realizing modernization but can be transformed into a positive factor for achieving it. To this end, we should not only leverage the advantage of the quantity of human resources through full employment but also enhance the overall quality of human resources through education and training. The mechanism through which population growth and changes in population structure affect economic development operates mainly through two pathways: one is to promote economic development by increasing the quantity of labor and ensuring the supply of labor; the other is to promote economic development by improving the quality of labor and raising labor productivity. Utilizing the demographic dividend to promote economic development requires choosing different pathways at different stages of economic development. In the early period of reform and opening up, China transformed its huge population size into an advantage in labor resources, actively developed labor-intensive industries, made China a major manufacturing and industrial country, and created a miracle of rapid and sustained economic growth. Entering the new development stage, with the slowdown in population growth and the increase in aging, it is necessary to shift to seeking a human capital dividend compatible with high-quality development, that is, to improve labor quality and labor productivity through developing education, thereby advancing Chinese-path modernization. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the proportion of the national population with a high school education or above reached 30.6 percent, and the proportion with a college degree or above reached 15.5 percent; the average number of years of education for the working-age population aged 16 to 59 was 10.8 years, which is expected to reach 13.8 years by 2025, and the gross enrollment rate in higher education will reach 60 percent. This continuously improving quality of human capital will undoubtedly provide higher-quality labor resource supply for the construction of Chinese-path modernization. Implementing the strategy of building a strong educational country will undoubtedly help transform the advantage of labor quantity into an advantage of labor quality more quickly and effectively, raise the level of human capital, and expand the demographic dividend of quality. To this end, first, actively promote the equalization of basic public education, focusing on improving the overall quality of the people; second, implement a plan to improve the quality of vocational and technical education, focusing on cultivating technical and skilled talent; third, build a more diversified higher education system, focusing on cultivating high-level specialized talent; fourth, improve the lifelong learning and education system, focusing on expanding channels for the people to receive education.

习近平总书记提出，“我们要坚持教育优先发展、科技自立自强、人才引领驱动，加快建设教育强国、科技强国、人才强国”。在各种生产要素中，人力资源是最重要的要素，人力资本是最宝贵的资本。中国是拥有超大规模人口数量的人力资源大国，这种人口规模不是实现现代化的掣肘，而是可以转化为实现现代化的积极因素。为此，不仅应通过充分就业发挥人力资源数量的优势，而且须通过教育培训增强人力资源的总体质量。人口增长和人口结构变化对经济发展的影响机制主要通过两条路径，一是通过增加劳动力数量和保障劳动力供给来促进经济发展；二是通过提高劳动力的质量和提高劳动生产率来促进经济发展。利用人口红利促进经济发展，在经济发展的不同阶段应选择不同的路径。在改革开放初期，我国将巨大的人口规模转化为劳动力资源优势，积极发展劳动密集型产业，促使中国成为制造业大国和工业大国，创造了经济高速和持续增长的奇迹；进入新发展阶段，随着人口增长速度的减缓和老龄化程度增加，需要转向寻求与高质量发展相适应的人力资本红利，即通过发展教育事业来提高劳动力素质和劳动生产率，进而推进中国式现代化。根据国家统计局数据，2020年全国高中及以上文化程度人口占全国人口的比重达到30.6%，大专及以上文化程度人口占比达到15.5%；全国16岁至59岁的劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限为10.8年，2025年将达到13.8年，高等教育毛入学率将达到60%。这种不断提升的人力资本质量，必将为中国式现代化建设提供更加高质量的劳动力资源供给。实施教育强国战略，无疑有助于将劳动力数量优势更好更快地转变为劳动力质量优势，提升人力资本水平和拓展人口质量红利。为此，一是积极推进基本公共教育均等化，着力提高国民整体素质；二是实施职业技术教育质量提升计划，着力培养技术技能型人才；三是构建更加多元的高等教育体系，着力培养高级专门人才；四是完善终身学习和教育体系，着力拓展国民受教育的渠道。

Promoting Economic Development Primarily through Domestic Demand

以内需为主推动经济发展

General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “China has a population of 1.4 billion, and its per capita GDP has exceeded US$10,000. It is the world’s largest and most promising consumer market, with huge room for growth.” [7]7 This is a direct quotation from Xi Jinping, highlighting the potential of China’s domestic market The vast scale of the market space requires that we base our development on the domestic sphere and rely more on the domestic market to achieve economic development. China is a typical large developing country. The characteristic of a large population can affect economic development through two pathways: production and consumption. That is, it can not only provide abundant labor but also form a huge scale of demand, jointly driving economic growth. In the early period of reform and opening up, due to the low level of national income, the large population did not form a large-scale domestic market. We rationally chose an export-oriented development model, fully utilizing the international market to promote the development of the manufacturing industry. With the rapid and sustained growth of China’s economy, the level of national income has been greatly improved, and consumption capacity has thus achieved rapid growth. The huge population has formed a vast market scale. Shifting to a large-country economic development path primarily based on domestic demand, and constructing a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other, has become the optimal choice.

习近平总书记指出：“我国有14亿人口，人均国内生产总值已经突破1万美元，是全球最大和最有潜力的消费市场，具有巨大增长空间。”庞大的市场规模空间要求我们应该把发展的立足点放在国内，更多依靠国内市场实现经济发展。中国是典型的发展中大国，人口众多的特征可以从生产和消费两条路径影响经济发展，即，不仅能够提供充裕的劳动力，而且可以形成巨大的需求规模，共同推动经济增长。在改革开放初期，由于国民收入水平低，规模庞大的人口并没有形成规模庞大的国内市场，我们理性地选择了出口导向型发展模式，充分利用国际市场推动制造业发展；随着中国经济的高速和持续增长，国民收入水平获得大幅度提高，消费能力进而实现快速增长，巨大人口规模形成了庞大的市场规模，转移到以内需为主的大国经济发展道路，构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局成为最优选择。

In the new stage of development, how to leverage the advantages of a super-large market to promote high-quality development is currently focused on the following areas: First, by building a unified national market, we aim to facilitate the efficient and smooth operation of the domestic market and expand its scale. China possesses a consumer market of enormous size. However, beyond overall scale, market size also involves issues of actual capacity, quality, and efficiency. Efforts should be made to eliminate phenomena such as regional and sectoral segmentation to continuously enhance the overall effectiveness of the domestic market; by establishing unified national market system rules, we can break down local protectionism and bottlenecks hindering the domestic economic cycle, promote the expansion of the domestic market scale, achieve a transformation from large to strong, and cultivate new drivers and advantages for economic development. Second, by relying on a strong domestic market, we aim to enhance the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains. Implement an economic globalization strategy based on domestic demand, combine the construction of domestic and international industrial chains, actively cultivate leading enterprises, enterprise clusters, and industrial clusters. Through market allocation and government promotion, establish a rational division of labor and matching mechanism, build a complete industrial supporting system and tightly-knit supply chain domestically, actively cultivate chain-leading enterprises with market and technological control capabilities, enhance the independent and controllable capabilities of industrial and supply chains, prevent supply chain ruptures, ensure industrial security, and effectively withstand the impact of external economic fluctuations. Third, by relying on a strong domestic market to gather innovation resources, we aim to achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening. Anchor the innovation chain to the industrial chain, based on the country’s major industrial needs, utilize the new-type nationwide system to coordinate resources, concentrate efforts on original and leading technological breakthroughs, enhance independent innovation capabilities in key core technologies; leverage market scale advantages to build technological research and development advantages, by gathering innovation factors and saving research and development costs, stimulate the innovation vitality of various market entities, and enter the high end of the global value chain through technological leadership and industrial upgrading.

新发展阶段怎样利用超大规模市场优势促进经济高质量发展，当前的重点集中在以下领域：一是通过建设全国统一大市场，推动国内市场高效畅通和规模拓展。我国拥有规模巨大的消费市场，然而，市场规模除总体规模外，还有一个实际容量和质量效率问题，应通过努力消除区域分割、行业分割等现象来不断增强国内市场的整体效能；通过建立全国统一的市场制度规则，破除地方保护主义和制约国内经济循环的堵点，推动国内市场规模拓展，实现由大到强的转变，培育经济发展的新动能和新优势。二是依托强大国内市场，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。实施基于内需的经济全球化战略，将构建国内产业链和国际产业链相结合，积极培植龙头企业和企业集群、产业集群，通过市场配置和政府推动，建立合理分工和匹配机制，在国内构建完备的产业配套体系以及紧密型的供应链，积极培育具有市场和技术控制能力的产业链链主企业，增强产业链和供应链的自主可控能力，防止供应链断裂，确保产业安全，以有效抵御外部经济波动的冲击。三是依托强大国内市场集聚创新资源，实现高水平科技自立自强。锚定产业链培植创新链，根据国家重大产业需求，利用新型举国体制协调资源，集中力量进行原始性和引领性的技术攻关，增强关键核心技术的自主创新能力；利用市场规模优势构建技术研发优势，通过集聚创新要素和节约研发成本，激发各类市场主体的创新活力，通过技术引领和产业升级进入全球价值链高端。

Online editor: Zhang Fujun

网络编辑：张福军